According to a survey of Australian Mortgage Holders, majority believe that interest rates will increase at least one more time this year.
Over three quarters of borrowers believe rates will go up, the study shows, and 45 per cent are concerned that a rate rise would significantly affect the household budget.
The survey results are certainly indicative of the presence of mortgage stress amongst mortgage holders. It suggests one in five householders with a mortgage would need to cut their grocery bills if rates were to go up by half a percentage point.
The poll was conducted by Beat Home Loans.
The results of the poll are a concern given a very good chance that lenders may be looking to lift interest rates outside of increases by the RBA.
While, analysts widely expect the Reserve Bank board will not change the official rate when it meets tomorrow and will keep it on hold until November, the Beat Home Loans survey found 37 per cent of home loan customers expect mortgage rates to climb by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, by the end of the year.
A further one in four believe rates will soar 100 basis points – an increase that would add about $200 a month to the repayment on a typical $300,000 mortgage.
One in three said they would most likely cut spending on clothes if interest rates climbed by half a percentage point.
Beat Home Loans general manager Kelly Humphreys said the figures showed home loan customers were “already at the boundaries of their ability to service loans“.
“We’re not talking about a luxury item here. We’re talking about everyday living – putting a meal on the table,” Ms Humphreys said.
“We’re coming off the back of a number of years now at historically low interest rates so borrowers who have entered into a loan recently are only used to those really low rates.”
As a consequence, the higher interest rate environment had the potential to have a more significant effect on consumers and their budgets than ever before, she said.
Reserve Bank data shows the average standard variable rate fell to its lowest level in almost 40 years during the global financial crisis as the central bank aggressively cut the official cash rate.
Since then, increases in the base rate – coupled with extra mortgage rate increases by some banks – have seen the average standard variable rate bounce from 5.75 per cent in May last year to 7.4 per cent now.
Of home loan customers aged 25 to 34, around 20% spend over half of their income on mortgage repayments.
About 15 per cent of home loan customers also said they planned to by an appliance such as a refrigerator or washing machine over the next year, and 13 per cent expected to buy a new car but two in five said they would change their mind about on those purchases if rates rose 50 basis points.