Despite growing economic problems in Europe and greater difficulty for lenders to access funding overseas, the home loan in Australia war is likely to continue in the short term at least.
It will be more and more difficult for banks to maintain the expected levels of profitability while meeting the expectations of borrowers.
Profit margins will decline as home loans – the lifeblood of the Australian banking industry – become less profitable, according to a recent report from Deloitte.
In its 2012 report on the state of the mortgage industry, released yesterday, Deloitte said consumers may benefit in the short term.
But it warns they may ultimately pay a heavy price as the number of players in the home loan game will drop significantly.
“Price wars will likely continue in the short term,” Deloitte national banking leader Rick Porter said.
“While such price competition may be a good outcome for borrowers in the short term, it does make it more difficult for competitors to emerge and potentially stifles innovation and other benefits that come with a broad base of competition.”
Australia’s total value of home loans is $1.2 trillion. But it is only growing at 6 per cent a year – the lowest growth rate in two decades, the report said.
As Australian population continues to age, home owners will look to downsize their homes.
Teamed with the growing trend for households to consolidate debts, pay down loans, and save money, banks will find it “challenging” to grow their mortgage books more quickly without poaching customers from rivals, he said.
Deloitte senior banking partner Graham Mott, also an author of the report, said banks would start feeling the squeeze on margins in the coming year. The bulk of the home loan business will come from refinance activity.
The solution was for lenders to seek revenue streams from insurance operations and other businesses.
Over the next two years, net interest margins – a key measure of a bank’s ability to profit from lending – will slide from 2.2 percentage points towards 2 percentage points.
Banks will struggle to meet the expectations of borrowers by offering the cheapest home loan deals while still remaining profitable.